We at PossessionPoints.com want to do everything we can to help
people to understand what PossessionPoints are, how they can be used
and why they give the avid fan a new and valuable view of the game
of professional football.
Q: Why do you call PossessionPoints a
"blended stat"?
A: We use the term "blended stat" to refer to a stat which isn't
pure such as those that are based on the counting of single events like yard rushing, passing
etc. For example, the well-known "Quarterback Rating" is
also a "blended stat"
since it is a calculated number based on completions, interceptions
etc. PossessionPoints is a blended stat based on an offensive scoring
drive using points, time of possession and quarter in which the
drive was completed.
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Q: How is PossessionPoints any different
from all the other stats that are available?
A: PossessionPoints is the only "scoring" stat that excludes points
scored by special teams and the defense. In addition
PossessionPoints is designed to give insight into how offensive
performance plays a role in a team's defensive readiness as a game
progresses.
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Q: Can you use PossessionPoint rankings
to pick winners in future weeks?
A: We do not make "picks" on games, we will highlight for our
members how teams next weeks games match-up from a PossessionPoints
stats point of view. We will show which team has a better season,
last week and 4 week moving average. As with all of our
information we will give subscribers all of the detailed numbers and
they can make their own choices. We want to
underscore that it is
most useful and revealing on a game-to-game basis. We would
encourage coaches to know, understand and use this stat to measure
the readiness of their defense much like a baseball manager would
use "pitch count" to gauge how tired a pitcher might be.
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Q: What are the "indicators" you talk
about?
A: There are 3 color based indicators we use to show when a team's
PossessionPoints have reached a significant value. We call the 3
indicators the "offense effect", the "net effect", and the "defense
effect".
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Q: What is the "Offense Effect" and why
is it significant?
A: The “Offense
Effect” is the PossessionPoints scored by a team's Offense during a
game. When a team reaches
60 PossessionPoints, the indicator turns “Yellow”, when the
PossessionPoints reach
100,
it turns “Green”. This indicator starts in the “Red Zone” (with
0
PosessionPoints ) and can only change to Yellow and Green once. It
is important to remember points scored by special teams and the
defense are worth 0 PossessionPoints. When we talk about a team
getting into the “Green Indicator Zone”, we are talking about the
“Offense Effect”. If we comment on either of the other 2 indicators
we will specifically state them.
In 2006 during the regular season, there were 256 games, and 253 times a
team’s possession points put them in the green indicator zone which
led to a victory 200 times or 75% of the time. This is the
indicator that a team’s offense directly controls and is our most
important indicator.
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Q: What is the "Net Effect" and why
is it significant?
The “Net Effect” is
simply the Offense Effect minus the Defense Effect (the other teams
Offense Effect). This indicator’s color range is:
-
Green when the value is greater than
40
-
Yellow when the value is between
40 and
-40
(where it starts at the beginning of the game)
-
Red when the value is less than
-40
This indicator can
change multiple times during a game, and although it is rare, it can
go from red to green and back to red again.
During the 2006 season, the Net Effect was Green for a team in 154 games.
A team with a Green Net Effect won 90% of the time. On this site you
will hear us call that the "90% Net Effect".
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Q: What is the "Defense Effect" and why
is it significant?
A: The third value we
talk about is
the “Defense Effect” which is the PossessionPoints scored by the
other team during a game, or PossessionPoints allowed. The indicator colors are the opposite of
the Offense Effect. At the onset of the game, this indicator is
green (with
0 PossessionPoints) and stays Green until the other team reaches
60 PossessionPoints. When
this happens, the indicator turns Yellow. If the opposing team
reaches
100
PossessionPoints, the indicator turns “Red”. As with the “Offense
Effect” it can only change in the one direction during a game.
Obviously, since this is the opposite of the Offense Effect, we know that
a team will lose 75% of the time when their indicator is Red.
The more PossessionPoints an Offense scores, the easier it is for a
Defense to hold the opposing team and keep their Defense Effect
indicator Green. During the 2006 season, there were 79 instances
when teams ended with all 3 indicators Green, 92% of the time these
teams won.
In only seven
games out of the 256 total games played, did teams with all three
indicators in the Red win. We refer to these games as anomalies.
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Q: How will regular fans use this stat?
A: While we hope to be able to provide live updates on PossessionPoints.com
for all games in the future, initially only a limited number of
games will have live updates. These live updates will show the
graphic we expect PossessionPoints followers will become very
familiar with. A graph like this:
The graphic above shows the state of the Eagles - Saints playoff
game when the Eagles decided to punt as opposed to take their
chances on 4th and 15. The top color box next to each
team's score is the "offense effect", the middle color box is the
"net effect", and the bottom box is the "defense effect." With the
Saints Offense effect squarely in the green zone, we at
PossessionPoints.com would say it was predictable that the Eagles
would not get the ball back. Decisions like this will be the topic
of a weekly column called "Hindsight Haven" in our
"Points-Of-The-Week" newsletter. We expect this will give regular
fans more enjoyment by giving them a new view of the game. There are
many outlets for standard stories and stats, but
PossessionPoints.com will give a new view and frequently challenge
"conventional wisdom".
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Q: If coaches start using this information to make decisions
like baseball managers use pitch counts won't it lower the percent correct that the
indicators are?
A:
Well, for those that asked this question, we must say you have a
good understanding of PossessionPoints and how to use them. And you
are absolutely correct. The indicators will tell a coach when he is
up against tough odds and needs to take a chance. As coaches start
using and relying on these indicators to take these chances, they
will "beat the indicators" more frequently. As time goes, this
will lower the percentage that the indicators are correct, but it
will continue to make the value of the indicators themselves rise as
they become essential information for coaches. We will always
reference 2006 as a base when these indicators were unknown. Of
course we may have to rename our weekly feature in our
"Points-Of-The-Week" from "Hindsight Haven" to "Thumbs Up Coach".
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Q: Even if a coach uses the PossessionPoints indicator to guide his decision, he can't be sure
the decision will work out and his team will win-- right?
A: That is true, but you could say the same thing about a card counter at a
Blackjack table. There is no guarantee that even if the count is in
his favor he will win that hand. However, casinos ban
card counters because they swing the odds in their favor, and they
will win more often than not. Until PossessionPoints becomes a
staple in
stadiums and with coaches, we will use our
"Points-Of-The-Week" letter to demonstrate where coaches
could have made
better decisions.
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Q: Why should I subscribe if
you are going to publish the PossessionPoints stats on the web each
week?
A: We will have tons of information on our website, and we hope
people check it frequently even if they don't subscribe. But, we at PossessionPoints.com live this stat
and will be analyzing every game looking for interesting angles and
points to report. Our professional writers will then convert this
analysis into "fun-to-read" stories which will be e-mailed
to you each week. You will also have access to our
Matchup information as well
as all of our Fantasy Player analysis. We realize fans root hard for
their team to win, but we realize that football is a game and about
fun as well. We intend to entertain our readers and have fun with
these stats even when we think a coach could have made a better
decision.
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Q: Why do I get this non-secure items being displayed message?
A: This occurs when you are on the site and your browser has
https://. This warning is due to the Javascript Google ads that are
served on many pages of this site. This often happens to new
subscribers when they return to the site from their PayPal purchase,
which requires security. If
you change the browser heading to http:// this warning will go away.
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